udn聯合書報攤 - 新聞時事 - 商業周刊 - 陸客投資台灣房市，是炒作�
從去年次級房貸的風暴、兩岸三通概念的投機炒房以及大陸貨幣緊縮政策即將帶來的房地產泡沫，我開始慢慢了解到，其實房地產業者投機的程度恐怕不輸給在次貸風暴中慘遭滅頂的銀行。
由此可見，凡是金融危機都不會只是個別產業的失衡，而是有系統的共業。現在已經有大陸的大型建商向避險基金用高利貸(年利25%)變現，未來大陸的房地產泡沫，又會對這世界上的資金產生怎樣爆炸性的影響呢？
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Analysts to Google: Buy Salesforce
Analysts to Google: Buy Salesforce
For some reason unknown, once in a while some analysts may decide to step up and tell a company how to run itself.
Let's skip the obvious and go deeper into the right question: does Google want to succeed in anything other than advertising?
Google Application, although well developed and well integrated into SF.COM, is still an experimental toy for Google. Yes, it has potential, but a company can only focus on limited number of thing at a time.
Google has proven to be extremely efficient in terms of monetizing search related technology. From the proportion of spotlight that Google's products received, it is easy to conclude that essentially the next big thing is still advertising. Youtube and Android, for example, are just new platform for advertising, and we can't really say the same for Google Applications.
To promote Google Application aggressively is to fight a war in a battlefield that Google has not yet claimed dominance. It's time-consuming, resource-draining and profit-thinning. Why would Google do that right now?
Of course, Google has interest in this market, but it's not time yet for Google to become serious.
For some reason unknown, once in a while some analysts may decide to step up and tell a company how to run itself.
Let's skip the obvious and go deeper into the right question: does Google want to succeed in anything other than advertising?
Google Application, although well developed and well integrated into SF.COM, is still an experimental toy for Google. Yes, it has potential, but a company can only focus on limited number of thing at a time.
Google has proven to be extremely efficient in terms of monetizing search related technology. From the proportion of spotlight that Google's products received, it is easy to conclude that essentially the next big thing is still advertising. Youtube and Android, for example, are just new platform for advertising, and we can't really say the same for Google Applications.
To promote Google Application aggressively is to fight a war in a battlefield that Google has not yet claimed dominance. It's time-consuming, resource-draining and profit-thinning. Why would Google do that right now?
Of course, Google has interest in this market, but it's not time yet for Google to become serious.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
The Great Inflation Debate
The Great Inflation Debate
Also, refer to How Inflation affects bonds and equity yields and 2 New-Style Candidates Hit Old Notes on Economy.
We live in one of most interesting time to observe how economy behaves in post-globalization era. It is worth noting, however, that many policies and phenomenon contradicts with themselves. If anything in this era can be trusted, the fact that "nothing is as it seems" is one.
For example, if a Minimal State policy is to be implemented, then Fed as an organization should be made obsolete. Also, to create regional conflict by attacking and occupying middle east countries, and as a result, to distort the long term oil price.... all those do not really fit into an image of Minimal State, unless my dictionary is inaccurate.
On the other hand, what's really stopping Federal Reserve to consider oil and food prices as part of CPI? The fear that consumer would panic? Or the fear that Wall Street would crumble to dust? By turning a blind eye on oil and food prices, regardless of intent, Federal Reserve is ACTUALLY encouraging investors with surviving capital to flood into commodity market because it seems to be the safest place to be by now. The fact is: by ignoring oil/food prices, Federal Reserve is actually helping to raise REAL inflation.
But Bernanke fears liquidity crisis above everything else. After announcing that he will not cut rate any further, he did nothing to raise it either. Therefore, I think that it should be safe to draw a conclusion from his behavior. The situation in major banks is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad, by astronomic measure. Consumers, while still complaining, are actually surviving this crisis (so far). Some banks, OTOH, may not survive it if there is any lack of liquidity. (From what I know, most major corporation actually still hold significant amount of cash; so banks will be most hurt if the rate goes up significantly).
If I were Bernanke, I would capitalize on this opportunity. I would tell banks to earn back in commodity market what they have lost previously in securities. I would let the price of commodity BOIL until every investor on this planet holds significant stake on oil and food. And then I will, on signal, raise the rate significantly, strengthening the Dollar and breaking the morale of commodity market. Did I miss something?
Also, refer to How Inflation affects bonds and equity yields and 2 New-Style Candidates Hit Old Notes on Economy.
We live in one of most interesting time to observe how economy behaves in post-globalization era. It is worth noting, however, that many policies and phenomenon contradicts with themselves. If anything in this era can be trusted, the fact that "nothing is as it seems" is one.
For example, if a Minimal State policy is to be implemented, then Fed as an organization should be made obsolete. Also, to create regional conflict by attacking and occupying middle east countries, and as a result, to distort the long term oil price.... all those do not really fit into an image of Minimal State, unless my dictionary is inaccurate.
On the other hand, what's really stopping Federal Reserve to consider oil and food prices as part of CPI? The fear that consumer would panic? Or the fear that Wall Street would crumble to dust? By turning a blind eye on oil and food prices, regardless of intent, Federal Reserve is ACTUALLY encouraging investors with surviving capital to flood into commodity market because it seems to be the safest place to be by now. The fact is: by ignoring oil/food prices, Federal Reserve is actually helping to raise REAL inflation.
But Bernanke fears liquidity crisis above everything else. After announcing that he will not cut rate any further, he did nothing to raise it either. Therefore, I think that it should be safe to draw a conclusion from his behavior. The situation in major banks is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad, by astronomic measure. Consumers, while still complaining, are actually surviving this crisis (so far). Some banks, OTOH, may not survive it if there is any lack of liquidity. (From what I know, most major corporation actually still hold significant amount of cash; so banks will be most hurt if the rate goes up significantly).
If I were Bernanke, I would capitalize on this opportunity. I would tell banks to earn back in commodity market what they have lost previously in securities. I would let the price of commodity BOIL until every investor on this planet holds significant stake on oil and food. And then I will, on signal, raise the rate significantly, strengthening the Dollar and breaking the morale of commodity market. Did I miss something?
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Economist's Corner: Potential Problems for Firms with China Operations - Deloitte Research - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Economist's Corner: Potential Problems for Firms with China Operations - Deloitte Research - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Although there might be signs showing that RMB will go up further, I would personally bet on the contrary, at least for short term.
For Chinese government, the worst fear is not inflation, but unsustainable economic growth. My estimate is that Chinese government will continue to buy U.S Dollar positions to keep the exchange rate still.
For companies which have operations in China, there's not that much to fear unless they operate in China solely for cheap labor. While most Taiwanese companies operating in China do have a focus on its cheap labor, most western, branded company stay in China for its immense market and potential consuming power. Even with inflation, the overall purchasing power of Chinese will most likely be rising, presenting a greener pasture in current worldwide economy.
Although there might be signs showing that RMB will go up further, I would personally bet on the contrary, at least for short term.
For Chinese government, the worst fear is not inflation, but unsustainable economic growth. My estimate is that Chinese government will continue to buy U.S Dollar positions to keep the exchange rate still.
For companies which have operations in China, there's not that much to fear unless they operate in China solely for cheap labor. While most Taiwanese companies operating in China do have a focus on its cheap labor, most western, branded company stay in China for its immense market and potential consuming power. Even with inflation, the overall purchasing power of Chinese will most likely be rising, presenting a greener pasture in current worldwide economy.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
股神嗆避險基金 對賭千萬 - MEIF理財部落格 - Yahoo!奇摩部落格
股神嗆避險基金 對賭千萬 - MEIF理財部落格 - Yahoo!奇摩部落格
還真是豪氣干雲啊。不過最近一堆避險基金倒閉的倒閉、經理人被判刑、爆量贖回潮....避險基金真的還有辦法撐那麼久嗎？
從BusinessWeek的報導當中，看到許多避險基金現在開始放起年利25%以上的高利貸了，甚至學Venture Capital開始投資未上市的網路公司....
看來巴菲特贏面實在很大。
還真是豪氣干雲啊。不過最近一堆避險基金倒閉的倒閉、經理人被判刑、爆量贖回潮....避險基金真的還有辦法撐那麼久嗎？
從BusinessWeek的報導當中，看到許多避險基金現在開始放起年利25%以上的高利貸了，甚至學Venture Capital開始投資未上市的網路公司....
看來巴菲特贏面實在很大。
Forrester: Social networking means business, big business | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone
Forrester: Social networking means business, big business | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone
This is a claim that I never have understood. Facebook is fun to play with, but that is as far as it would go. Advertising potential of pure Social Networking sites is also just as good as a marginal one. I have never clicked on those ads; at the same time, I do click on Google Adwords from search result because they are not only interesting, but most of time relevant.
In my opinion, Social Networking sites should look at business side more closely and they will find that the profitable headhunter/recruiter market is within their reach. It might take extra know-how and effort to run this side of business, but relationship can mostly be monetized this way. Users, at the same time, would also be more willing to share their private data if a fatter paycheck is at his/her door, don't you think?
This is a claim that I never have understood. Facebook is fun to play with, but that is as far as it would go. Advertising potential of pure Social Networking sites is also just as good as a marginal one. I have never clicked on those ads; at the same time, I do click on Google Adwords from search result because they are not only interesting, but most of time relevant.
In my opinion, Social Networking sites should look at business side more closely and they will find that the profitable headhunter/recruiter market is within their reach. It might take extra know-how and effort to run this side of business, but relationship can mostly be monetized this way. Users, at the same time, would also be more willing to share their private data if a fatter paycheck is at his/her door, don't you think?
Booz & Company Launched as a Leader in Global Management Consulting
Booz & Company Launched as a Leader in Global Management Consulting
Looks like that MBA graduates will be heading to the new company: Booz & Company.
According to the press release, Booz & Company will focus on strategy/management consulting market, while the holding company, Booz Allen Hamilton, still takes care of IT Consulting and outsourcing.
Booz & Company faces fierce competition from others in the "Top Tier" of management consulting territory, and those companies are usually pure management consulting companies. This restructuring might signal a re-positioning of Booz & Company as a premier consulting firm instead of another firm that provides professional service buffet.
This is an interesting development. Just when I thought that more vertical integration might be on the way, some companies might actually choose to further differentiate themselves as first class citizen of this territory.
It pays to be an elite.
Looks like that MBA graduates will be heading to the new company: Booz & Company.
According to the press release, Booz & Company will focus on strategy/management consulting market, while the holding company, Booz Allen Hamilton, still takes care of IT Consulting and outsourcing.
Booz & Company faces fierce competition from others in the "Top Tier" of management consulting territory, and those companies are usually pure management consulting companies. This restructuring might signal a re-positioning of Booz & Company as a premier consulting firm instead of another firm that provides professional service buffet.
This is an interesting development. Just when I thought that more vertical integration might be on the way, some companies might actually choose to further differentiate themselves as first class citizen of this territory.
It pays to be an elite.
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