The Great Inflation Debate

The Great Inflation Debate

Also, refer to How Inflation affects bonds and equity yields and 2 New-Style Candidates Hit Old Notes on Economy.

We live in one of most interesting time to observe how economy behaves in post-globalization era. It is worth noting, however, that many policies and phenomenon contradicts with themselves. If anything in this era can be trusted, the fact that "nothing is as it seems" is one.

For example, if a Minimal State policy is to be implemented, then Fed as an organization should be made obsolete. Also, to create regional conflict by attacking and occupying middle east countries, and as a result, to distort the long term oil price.... all those do not really fit into an image of Minimal State, unless my dictionary is inaccurate.

On the other hand, what's really stopping Federal Reserve to consider oil and food prices as part of CPI? The fear that consumer would panic? Or the fear that Wall Street would crumble to dust? By turning a blind eye on oil and food prices, regardless of intent, Federal Reserve is ACTUALLY encouraging investors with surviving capital to flood into commodity market because it seems to be the safest place to be by now. The fact is: by ignoring oil/food prices, Federal Reserve is actually helping to raise REAL inflation.

But Bernanke fears liquidity crisis above everything else. After announcing that he will not cut rate any further, he did nothing to raise it either. Therefore, I think that it should be safe to draw a conclusion from his behavior. The situation in major banks is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad, by astronomic measure. Consumers, while still complaining, are actually surviving this crisis (so far). Some banks, OTOH, may not survive it if there is any lack of liquidity. (From what I know, most major corporation actually still hold significant amount of cash; so banks will be most hurt if the rate goes up significantly).

If I were Bernanke, I would capitalize on this opportunity. I would tell banks to earn back in commodity market what they have lost previously in securities. I would let the price of commodity BOIL until every investor on this planet holds significant stake on oil and food. And then I will, on signal, raise the rate significantly, strengthening the Dollar and breaking the morale of commodity market. Did I miss something?

〈分析〉熊氣瀰漫 政府好戰 美國經濟回春？等2011年再說吧！ - MEIF理

〈分析〉熊氣瀰漫 政府好戰 美國經濟回春？等2011年再說吧！ - MEIF理

巨額的聯邦負債、已經引爆以及尚未引爆的金融商品、高齡化的社會。這就是現在的美國。

今年底的選舉會為美國的未來畫下命運。在攀高的失業率以及不明確的未來當中，新總統會用哪種政見來贏得選民的心呢？

高齡化的社會所面臨的賦稅問題，解決方案是要透過引進大量的年輕移民。但引進大量的移民又會同時受到中產階級的挑戰─H1工作簽證在過去已經因為不斷的遭受非議而被迫減少名額。

我想我能做的就是在去美國拿MBA之前去補辦一張台胞證，然後伺機而動了。

聯合新聞網 | 全球觀察 | 國際萬象 | 新片醜化蘇聯 哈里遜福特遭

聯合新聞網 | 全球觀察 | 國際萬象 | 新片醜化蘇聯 哈里遜福特遭

似乎每個經濟體的崛起都伴隨著民族主義？

不過這也反映了好萊屋似乎還沒抓到市場的趨勢。在過去要找壞人很簡單；現在呢，沒有必要為了一個三億人口的市場而放棄了數十億人口的新興市場了！

在當前的風向，好萊屋似乎應該多拍一點爭議性的、多檢討美國本身的片子反而能得到全世界的迴響，並繼續維持其世界電影工廠的地位。

聯合新聞網 | 娛樂追星 | 熱門星聞 | 封殺令一出 湯唯人間蒸發

聯合新聞網 | 娛樂追星 | 熱門星聞 | 封殺令一出 湯唯人間蒸發

其實觀察兩岸對於藝人的若干作法, 雖然有程度上的差異, 但都一樣脫離不了小鼻子小眼睛的觀感. 何必呢! 我倒是很希望看到湯小姐的廣告呢!

台灣人的試煉

看到這種感覺不新的新聞還是會感到無力

聯合新聞網 | 意見評論 | 社論 | 全球經濟重整，福兮？禍兮？
聯合新聞網 | 國內要聞 | 228究責草案 | 228究責草案明審查 藍營：株連九族

台灣已經錯失了一次景氣循環的頂點,現在景氣又要往下滑囉,竟然還有這種東西被提出來啊.
發發牢騷.只是很遺憾的,被物競天擇的竟然是擁抱所謂民主的我們.遺憾.

不過坦白講,這一切都不令我意外.任何國家發展到民主政治都會遇到和今天台灣類似的挑戰.畢竟,民主就是讓人民付出作決定的代價.你買了一台爛車 電視機 冷氣機 電冰箱,付出代價的不就是你本身嗎?民主政治只是讓這報應回報到人民身上罷了.

政治和商業行為本來就無所不同.只要有市場就有人會操作!只要有利益就會有人向前衝!今天身為一個在台灣出生長大的人,我只想反省:為什麼還有這樣的市場.

或許台灣根本配不上過去二十幾年的進步和發展.或者說,過去的成功取得來自少數人的規劃(政府,產業先驅),人民的睿智尚未到位;所謂的民主反而反應了民族性根本還只停留在民粹的程度.這也不是壞事.有機會知道問題的所在,總比不知道來得好.但是然後呢?

今年初我出差到美國的時候,在Las Vegas和一位計程車司機有了一段很生動的對談.當一位計程車司機可以告訴你他到過你的家鄉,知道並且關心目前台灣與中國之間的情勢,你大概就可以理解美國的國力來自哪裡.

我似乎也犯了甚麼都拿去跟美國比的毛病.不過我真正想說得是,我們這樣的一個小島實在沒有和美國比較的本錢.那麼一大塊土地,那麼全球宏觀的策略,那麼強勢的經濟能力....坦白說,美國可以負擔的錯誤比台灣多的可多了.台灣這麼小一塊地方,只要犯了一個錯誤就可以跌入火坑了,而有一群人還巴不得這些錯誤越犯越多....

如果有一個字可以貫穿這篇口水,那大概就是"悶"吧!

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