tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5046033382164959842024-03-13T07:22:51.700+08:00Coldbear SnipsThe mental exercise of an analytical mind.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-2435675793669638512008-09-02T06:05:00.000+08:002008-09-02T06:06:13.933+08:00Consulting interview<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/b9ghb6-l7Fs&hl=zh_TW&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/b9ghb6-l7Fs&hl=zh_TW&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-32461690655272473232008-09-02T05:25:00.000+08:002008-09-02T05:26:57.588+08:00Funny stuff<object height="225" width="400"> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /> <param name="movie" value="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=1616061&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=&fullscreen=1" /> <embed src="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=1616061&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=&fullscreen=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" width="400" height="225"></embed></object><br />
<a href="http://vimeo.com/1616061?pg=embed&sec=1616061">Damn It Feels Good To Be A Banker -- A Wall Street Musical</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/user705195?pg=embed&sec=1616061">Leveraged Sell-Out</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com/?pg=embed&sec=1616061">Vimeo</a>.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-62820024004268700592008-07-13T17:02:00.000+08:002008-07-13T17:07:32.843+08:00More than just being sarcastic<a href="http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2008-07-13/"><img border="0" height="44" src="http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/10000/1000/100/16319/16319.strip.gif" style="" width="420" /></a><br />
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Sometimes it makes sense.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-23984245131540924272008-07-10T12:29:00.000+08:002008-07-10T13:08:51.017+08:00Ubuntu 8.04 調整指南<div class="separator" style="text-align: center; clear: both;"><a href="http://rmorg.org/random/ubuntuLogo/UbuntuLogo1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="border: 0pt none ; background-color: transparent; clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; float: left; margin-right: 1em;"><img height="150" src="http://rmorg.org/random/ubuntuLogo/UbuntuLogo1.jpg" style="border: 0pt none ;" width="200" /></a></div>
雖然名曰指南,但其實比較接近筆記。<br />
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在諸多開放原始碼大老的共襄盛舉下,使用Linux作為日常生活的作業系統似乎再也沒那麼困難,其中又以Ubuntu所帶動的風潮最受世人矚目。然而,再先進的技術,少了跨國的人力資源配合,讓Ubuntu這個套件仍然有那麼一點美中不足。對一個繁體中文的使用者來說,裝完Ubuntu卻仍然無法使用中文輸入法實在是很麻煩的事情。<br />
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<a href="http://lazybuntu.openfoundry.org/images/screenshot/Lazybuntu_3d.png" imageanchor="1" style="border: 0pt none ; background-color: transparent; clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; float: right; margin-left: 1em;"><img height="420" src="http://lazybuntu.openfoundry.org/images/screenshot/Lazybuntu_3d.png" style="border: 0pt none ;" width="256" /></a>所幸,台灣的Linux前輩們開發了<a href="http://lazybuntu.openfoundry.org/">Lazybuntu</a>。這個懶人包套件除了能夠幫忙設定中文化環境之外,甚至還包括了許多桌面和字型美化的套件,讓你透過選單溝選的方式,就可以輕輕鬆鬆的享有一個完整美觀的Ubuntu環境。坦白說,如果不是有Lazybuntu,安裝一個完整可用的Linux環境可能要花一整個禮拜在環境設定和微調。<br />
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在字型的方面,雖然Lazybuntu已經安裝了給個相當美觀的字型,但整體來說還是微軟的正黑體最好看。安裝方式非常容易:將正黑體相關的Truetype檔案全部都Copy到/usr/share/fonts/truetype底下即可;我還另外Copy了Windows底下的Arial字型,配合反鋸齒說有多美就有多美。<br />
<a href="http://www.imgx.org/pthumbs/large/713/screenshot-compizfusion-cube.png" imageanchor="1" style="border: 0pt none ; background-color: transparent; clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; float: left; margin-right: 1em;"><img height="150" src="http://www.imgx.org/pthumbs/large/713/screenshot-compizfusion-cube.png" style="border: 0pt none ;" width="200" /></a>另外,Ubuntu預設安裝總是有點少東少西的。只要你有安裝夠強大的Nvidia/ATI顯示卡,CompizFusion預設就可在,「外觀設定」選項當中就可開啟預設的特效,但如果你要客製化這些特效,則又得去安裝CompizConfig。還沒完呢!還記得Openoffice 2.4人所稱道的3D投影片特效嗎?那也是要另外去安裝openoffice.org-ogltrans套件才能夠生效的。<br />
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對常要出門作簡報的朋友來說,新的nvidia-settings讓人驚艷。 新版的nvidia-settings讓你能夠在不需重開XServer的狀況下直接使用雙螢幕,並且能夠過將設定寫入/etc/X11/xorg.conf的方式讓這些設定能夠永久有效。唯一需要注意的是,預設開啟的nvidia-settings並沒有root的寫入權限,因此建議用指令的方式開啟nvidia-settings: sudo nvidia-settings。Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-46802200627827531052008-06-22T20:13:00.001+08:002008-07-01T18:59:00.520+08:00Evolution and genetics | The misfits | Economist.com<a href="http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11529402&amp;fsrc=RSS">Evolution and genetics | The misfits | Economist.com</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.3dscience.com/img/Products/3D_Models/Biology/DNA/DNA_w_Phosphate_structure/Supporting_images/3d_model_DNA_w_phosphate_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="border: 0pt none ; background-color: transparent; clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; float: left; margin-right: 1em;"><img height="96" src="http://www.3dscience.com/img/Products/3D_Models/Biology/DNA/DNA_w_Phosphate_structure/Supporting_images/3d_model_DNA_w_phosphate_1.jpg" style="border: 0pt none ;" width="96" /></a>Interesting. So there is no such thing as "Free Will". What we tend to do, and what we tend to want, are decided by DNA.<br />
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Since the presumption of Democracy is that "Everyone is born equal", which kind of effect will DNA decoding bring to our political landscape? Or is Democracy itself an excellent playground for evolutional forces?Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-17186712580394384362008-06-21T06:43:00.001+08:002008-06-28T21:00:32.261+08:00Nvidia: Nvidia Tegra All-in-One Mobile Processors Aim to Nuke Intel's Atom, Promise 30 Hours HD Playback<a href="http://philip9876.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/nuclear-explosion.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://philip9876.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/nuclear-explosion.jpg" style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 200px;" /></a><br />
<a href="http://gizmodo.com/5012159/nvidia-tegra-all+in+one-mobile-processors-aim-to-nuke-intels-atom-promise-30-hours-hd-playback">Nvidia: Nvidia Tegra All-in-One Mobile Processors Aim to Nuke Intel's Atom, Promise 30 Hours HD Playback</a><br />
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This is all-out-war. If I were a graphic artist, I would draw a nice map with clashing CPU armies on it..... but I'm not.<br />
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While Tegra is quite appealing from technical point of view, the hostile tone that Nvidia has used might not be that appropriate. Atom, despite all its optimization, is still a x86 CPU. Intel's plan is obviously to court current application developers that are already familiar with x86 instruction set. ARM-based CPU is another story, and requires another introduction strategy. By making people comparing Apple to Oranges, Nvidia might have wasted a perfect chance to surprise Intel on Device marketplace. The old saying says: keep your friends close, and keep your enemies closer.... remember?Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-60252577818059563922008-06-21T06:42:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:59:30.215+08:00Openbook: Is Via's OpenBook the Next (Little) Big Thing in UMPCs?<a href="http://gizmodo.com/393223/is-vias-openbook-the-next-little-big-thing-in-umpcs">Openbook: Is Via's OpenBook the Next (Little) Big Thing in UMPCs?</a><br />
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VIA is the only Taiwanese Semiconductor Company that dares to compete with Intel & AMD on PC CPU/Chipset arena. While VIA has been fighting this losing battle for a long time, the Sub-Notebook market has indeed opened another door for VIA.<br />
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OpenBook concept is VIA's strategy to capture new entrants of Sub-Notebook marketplace. By offering layout design free of charge, any company entering this field will be able to build their own Sub-Notebook/UMPC in relatively short time. But why would any company enter this market? It's already crowded. Without significant innovation on human interface design, Sub-Notebook market segment will step into the unavoidable price war.<br />
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Now, if I own the capital to spend on this venture, I would collaborate with Ubuntu, VIA and nVidia to produce a Multi-Touch UMPC aimed at aged people. What they need is just a beautiful device that can allow them to browse internet easily, store photos and perform conference call. Sadly, no company has paid enough attention to this market yet.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-29078938757297750042008-06-21T02:21:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:58:29.542+08:00udn聯合書報攤 - 新聞時事 - 商業周刊 - 陸客投資台灣房市,是炒作�<a href="http://mag.udn.com/mag/newsstand/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=130468">udn聯合書報攤 - 新聞時事 - 商業周刊 - 陸客投資台灣房市,是炒作�</a><br />
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從去年次級房貸的風暴、兩岸三通概念的投機炒房以及大陸貨幣緊縮政策即將帶來的房地產泡沫,我開始慢慢了解到,其實房地產業者投機的程度恐怕不輸給在次貸風暴中慘遭滅頂的銀行。<br />
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由此可見,凡是金融危機都不會只是個別產業的失衡,而是有系統的共業。現在已經有大陸的大型建商向避險基金用高利貸(年利25%)變現,未來大陸的房地產泡沫,又會對這世界上的資金產生怎樣爆炸性的影響呢?Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-30364068185620668202008-06-15T07:18:00.003+08:002008-06-28T21:49:46.371+08:00Analysts to Google: Buy Salesforce<a href="http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Enterprise-Apps/Analysts-Call-For-Google-to-Buy-Salesforcecom/">Analysts to Google: Buy Salesforce</a><br />
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For some reason unknown, once in a while some analysts may decide to step up and tell a company how to run itself.<br />
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Let's skip the obvious and go deeper into the right question: does Google want to succeed in anything other than advertising?<br />
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Google Application, although well developed and <a href="http://coldbearsnips.blogspot.com/2008/05/salesforcecom-google-apps-verdict-good.html">well integrated into SF.COM</a>, is still an experimental toy for Google. Yes, it has <a href="http://coldbearsnips.blogspot.com/2008/03/google-apps-gets-important-endorsement.html">potential</a>, but a company can only focus on limited number of thing at a time.<br />
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Google has proven to be extremely efficient in terms of monetizing search related technology. From the proportion of spotlight that Google's products received, it is easy to conclude that essentially the next big thing is still advertising. Youtube and Android, for example, are just new platform for advertising, and we can't really say the same for Google Applications.<br />
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To promote Google Application aggressively is to fight a war in a battlefield that Google has not yet claimed dominance. It's time-consuming, resource-draining and profit-thinning. Why would Google do that right now?<br />
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Of course, Google has interest in this market, but it's not time yet for Google to become serious.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-32581002297373676552008-06-14T19:04:00.004+08:002008-06-28T20:56:27.825+08:00The Great Inflation Debate<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jun2008/db20080613_966843.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily">The Great Inflation Debate</a><br />
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Also, refer to <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11561511&amp;fsrc=RSS">How Inflation affects bonds and equity yields</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/11/us/politics/11campaign.html?pagewanted=1&amp;_r=1&amp;partner=rssnyt&amp;emc=rss">2 New-Style Candidates Hit Old Notes on Economy</a>.<br />
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We live in one of most interesting time to observe how economy behaves in post-globalization era. It is worth noting, however, that many policies and phenomenon contradicts with themselves. If anything in this era can be trusted, the fact that "nothing is as it seems" is one.<br />
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For example, if a Minimal State policy is to be implemented, then Fed as an organization should be made obsolete. Also, to create regional conflict by attacking and occupying middle east countries, and as a result, to distort the long term oil price.... all those do not really fit into an image of Minimal State, unless my dictionary is inaccurate.<br />
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On the other hand, what's really stopping Federal Reserve to consider oil and food prices as part of CPI? The fear that consumer would panic? Or the fear that Wall Street would crumble to dust? By turning a blind eye on oil and food prices, regardless of intent, Federal Reserve is ACTUALLY encouraging investors with surviving capital to flood into commodity market because it seems to be the safest place to be by now. The fact is: by ignoring oil/food prices, Federal Reserve is actually helping to raise REAL inflation.<br />
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But Bernanke fears liquidity crisis above everything else. After announcing that he will not cut rate any further, he did nothing to raise it either. Therefore, I think that it should be safe to draw a conclusion from his behavior. The situation in major banks is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad, by astronomic measure. Consumers, while still complaining, are actually surviving this crisis (so far). Some banks, OTOH, may not survive it if there is any lack of liquidity. (From what I know, most major corporation actually still hold significant amount of cash; so banks will be most hurt if the rate goes up significantly).<br />
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If I were Bernanke, I would capitalize on this opportunity. I would tell banks to earn back in commodity market what they have lost previously in securities. I would let the price of commodity BOIL until every investor on this planet holds significant stake on oil and food. And then I will, on signal, raise the rate significantly, strengthening the Dollar and breaking the morale of commodity market. Did I miss something?Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-39482637231918412962008-06-12T02:27:00.001+08:002008-06-28T20:55:27.575+08:00Economist's Corner: Potential Problems for Firms with China Operations - Deloitte Research - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu<a href="http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0,1002,sid=15288&amp;cid=207817,00.html?link=rss">Economist's Corner: Potential Problems for Firms with China Operations - Deloitte Research - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu</a><br />
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Although there might be signs showing that RMB will go up further, I would personally bet on the contrary, at least for short term.<br />
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For Chinese government, the worst fear is not inflation, but unsustainable economic growth. My estimate is that Chinese government will continue to buy U.S Dollar positions to keep the exchange rate still.<br />
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For companies which have operations in China, there's not that much to fear unless they operate in China solely for cheap labor. While most Taiwanese companies operating in China do have a focus on its cheap labor, most western, branded company stay in China for its immense market and potential consuming power. Even with inflation, the overall purchasing power of Chinese will most likely be rising, presenting a greener pasture in current worldwide economy.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-5325986069469300912008-06-11T20:40:00.003+08:002008-06-28T20:54:33.421+08:00股神嗆避險基金 對賭千萬 - MEIF理財部落格 - Yahoo!奇摩部落格<a href="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw%21Q5uL3CaFFRliq680eW.lDoBFNOw4/article?mid=4121">股神嗆避險基金 對賭千萬 - MEIF理財部落格 - Yahoo!奇摩部落格</a><br />
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還真是豪氣干雲啊。不過最近一堆避險基金倒閉的倒閉、經理人被判刑、爆量贖回潮....避險基金真的還有辦法撐那麼久嗎?<br />
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從BusinessWeek的報導當中,看到許多避險基金現在開始放起年利25%以上的高利貸了,甚至學Venture Capital開始投資未上市的網路公司....<br />
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看來巴菲特贏面實在很大。Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-2639509829429435622008-06-11T16:00:00.002+08:002008-06-28T21:49:46.372+08:00Forrester: Social networking means business, big business | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone<a href="http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9924942-2.html?part=rss&amp;tag=feed&amp;subj=Webware">Forrester: Social networking means business, big business | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone</a><br />
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This is a claim that I never have understood. Facebook is fun to play with, but that is as far as it would go. Advertising potential of pure Social Networking sites is also just as good as a marginal one. I have never clicked on those ads; at the same time, I do click on Google Adwords from search result because they are not only interesting, but most of time relevant.<br />
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In my opinion, Social Networking sites should look at business side more closely and they will find that the profitable headhunter/recruiter market is within their reach. It might take extra know-how and effort to run this side of business, but relationship can mostly be monetized this way. Users, at the same time, would also be more willing to share their private data if a fatter paycheck is at his/her door, don't you think?Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-19510583225212371772008-06-11T09:34:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:52:50.436+08:00Booz & Company Launched as a Leader in Global Management Consulting<a href="http://www.boozallen.com/news/39878977?lpid=38236860&amp;amp;amp;gko=8ce64">Booz & Company Launched as a Leader in Global Management Consulting</a><br />
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Looks like that MBA graduates will be heading to the new company: Booz & Company.<br />
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According to the press release, Booz & Company will focus on strategy/management consulting market, while the holding company, Booz Allen Hamilton, still takes care of IT Consulting and outsourcing.<br />
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Booz & Company faces fierce competition from others in the "Top Tier" of management consulting territory, and those companies are usually pure management consulting companies. This restructuring might signal a re-positioning of Booz & Company as a premier consulting firm instead of another firm that provides professional service buffet.<br />
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This is an interesting development. Just when I thought that more vertical integration might be on the way, some companies might actually choose to further differentiate themselves as first class citizen of this territory.<br />
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It pays to be an elite.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-7438368128128292752008-06-10T20:01:00.001+08:002008-06-28T20:51:02.680+08:0020% Of Valley Startups Can’t Get To Their Cash<a href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/03/11/20-of-valley-startups-cant-get-to-their-cash/">20% Of Valley Startups Can’t Get To Their Cash</a><br />
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Today we learn a new word: Auction Rate Securities. Instead of being an investment tool, this tool has proven to be a liquidity facility for banks whose main job is to invest in bonds or debt with long maturity period. When credit rating of bond falls, it affects every security linked to it, creating this little yet intimidating liquidity crisis.<br />
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Now, I actually have a nice idea about developing derivatives. How about, for example, developing derivatives using the concept of annuity? A brilliant student of modest economic background can apply for this kind of student loan, and pays a modest amount back throughout his entire life. He or she will suffer less chance of bankruptcy, and bank will have better liquidity, less risk of student not being able to pay back and even potentially better return. Investor of this kind of security will be able to draw stable amount of money from this pool of money, making this security optimal for retirement fund. Besides, it can be also a form of charity, helping talented student move up social ladder without suffering suffocating financial pressure.<br />
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I must be a genius. Or dumb. Or too naiive.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-42737146144958954182008-06-10T19:23:00.003+08:002008-06-28T21:11:44.209+08:00The new Iphone out July 11 for 199$ all over the world. And now? | PiZero Nokia & Symbian Design<a href="http://www.pizero.net/archives/404">The new Iphone out July 11 for 199$ all over the world. And now? | PiZero Nokia & Symbian Design</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.pizero.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/56.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://www.pizero.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/56.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 500px;" /></a>I have just finished watching this year's WWDC keynote. All I can say is that I'm stunned. Apple is not the one that I knew anymore; it is focused now on worldwide dominance, delivering this super beautiful looking device at 199 USD each, when everything else boils with inflation.<br />
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Now I'm really considering becoming one of those Appletards and become cool for a change.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-4322906119665160352008-06-09T13:41:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:49:52.752+08:00Fall Recruiting Moves into Summer<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/content/jun2008/bs2008068_414314.htm?campaign_id=rss_null">Fall Recruiting Moves into Summer</a><br />
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Bad news for those of us who are still stuck in Asia! Acquiring internship opportunities will be a tough fight this winter.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-75446265165371244692008-06-03T15:09:00.002+08:002008-06-28T21:49:46.373+08:00US Internet will shrink to 2 strong players-report - Forbes.com<a href="http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/06/03/2008-06-03T041657Z_01_N02327358_RTRIDST_0_INTERNET-RESEARCH1.html">US Internet will shrink to 2 strong players-report - Forbes.com</a><br />
<br />
......which fits exactly with my own prediction. Internet companies require vision, and among all those companies, only Google and Amazon have shown a constant vigilance and preparation for what it is to come. Ok, perhaps we should also add Apple to the mix, for it is now the largest music retailer on the internet, and perhaps the most successful mobile device maker by the introduction of iPhone 3G. Yes, people have always underestimated this company (including myself), but Apple has shown to attack when it is least expected. After all, Apple is going to own both the device (iPhone, iPod) and internet (expansion of iTune store).Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-26609941018173648892008-06-03T09:51:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:49:06.338+08:00〈分析〉金融體系崩潰風險日增 12幕悲劇就要上演 - MEIF理財部落格 -<a href="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw%21Q5uL3CaFFRliq680eW.lDoBFNOw4/article?mid=3109">〈分析〉金融體系崩潰風險日增 12幕悲劇就要上演 - MEIF理財部落格 -</a><br />
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且讓我引用這篇文章的片段:<br />
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<blockquote>一、房價會從至高點下挫20-30%。全美房屋價值會蒸發 4-6兆美元。大型房屋建商可能破產,導致營建股進一步下滑。況且美聯儲主席Ben Bernanke也已經坦言,美國房價會一直跌到2009年。<br />
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<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">大都市的房地產仍然很值錢。房地產下跌,影響到的最主要是投資客吧?恐怖的其實是投資客把錢賺走,給社會的創傷讓大家買單的事實。</span><br />
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二、 優質貸款與近優(near-prime)抵押貸款都會虧損。 Roubini警告,「這是個普遍性的貸款危機,而且正在崩潰,有問題的不只是次貸而已。從2005年至2007年間申請的抵押貸款中,有約 60%的貸款有這樣的問題。而在房價與經濟大幅下滑時,各種貸款所造成的損失也會大幅增加。」這將額外增加3000億美元的虧損。<br />
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三、消費者債務違約大幅提高。現在已經沒有什麼是安全的了:「美國有數千萬筆的次級信用卡和次級車貸。」而違約案件「將不止發生在次級借款人身上」,會增加更多「銀行和金融企業的虧損,更加深信用危機。」<br />
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<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">聽說在美國要辦信用卡必須要先申請社會安全碼,原因是因為必須要用社會安全碼來紀錄信用。F1學生簽證的持有人無法申請社會安全碼,但卻讓為所欲為的消費者申請?關於美國消費習慣的傳言不知道是否誇大其實?</span><br />
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四、援助信用保險者的方案不會有用。就算援助金額高達 100億、 150億美元,都沒有用。因為只要它們的評級被調降,就會「帶來另外1500億美元和資產抵押證券投資相關的減計」,並使市政和貨幣市場投資組合產生更多虧損。<br />
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五、商用不動產將再惡化。商用不動產過去的魯莽行為和住屋市場並無太大差別,「對新辦公室、店面、購物中心等的需求都將下滑。」 Roubini說。<br />
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六、高度曝險於抵押貸款的大型銀行會垮台。這聽起來很可怕,但有些大型美國國內銀行「將加入 200多個次級貸款機構的行列,它們的破產會為已經很嚴重的信用危機雪上加霜。」<br />
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<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">看來美國的銀行職缺會嚴重短缺了!</span><br />
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七、銀行的資產價值進一步下跌,虧損卻進一步增加。「各大銀行的資產負債表上仍有數十億的貸款未消,而且它們的價值己低於平均。」現在資產價值已經打了 9折,未來還可能再下殺。<br />
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八、 經濟衰退一但加速,企業違約將暴增。目前的企業長期違約率平均約為3.8%,在2006至2007年曾一度下降至0.6%的低點,但那是由於寬鬆的信用、 流動性和低利差。垃圾債券的再融資成本將很快會提高。「在2008年的衰退中,企業違約率將會飆升到 10%以上。」這會導致在信用違約交換 (CDS)的重大損失,預估在 200億美元至2500億美元間,並有可能會更多。<br />
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<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">這其實是很有趣的現象。就我所知,投資衍伸金融商品的企業往往也是貸款者,這實在像是拿別人借你的錢再去借給別人。怎麼大家都可以扮演銀行的角色?債務的確是金融的活水,但是它扮演角色的界線被世界上最聰明的一群人給模糊了。</span><br />
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九、無法可管的「影子金融系統」面臨著嚴重的問題。這 個影子金融系統的規模現已超過 500兆美元。這些機構借入空頭部位和現金,然後借出或投資在多頭部位和流動性較低的資產,但由於它們並非存款機構,因此發生問題時也不能找央行幫忙。因 此接著而來的會是破產,「包括大型對沖基金、少數貨幣市場基金、全部的結構性投資工具,可能還有一兩家大型的重要經紀公司。」<br />
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<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">而且這規模還會越來越大。M型社會讓富有者擁有超乎比例的財富;由於避險基金的投資者多為富有階級,未來避險基金掀起的風暴將只會更大。</span><br />
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十、當衰退 旋風開始不受控制,股市會再下跌。「投資人會開始了解,經濟的下滑比想像嚴重。信用保險公司不會得救、金融虧損還會增加、所得卻大幅下滑,不管是不是金融 產業都一樣。」 Roubini警告,「投資人的大舉看空會使美股出現另一波下跌,並轉而影響到全球股市。在美國進入衰退,S&P 500 指數下跌 28%左右時,全球都將面臨熊市到來。」<br />
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十一、信用問題將榨乾許多金融市場的流動性。 Roubini說,「另一輪銀行間的信用緊縮,將隨著對手風險、缺乏信任、金流溢價和信用風險等而發生。銀行間的拆借利率將再上升。」隨著拆借利率利差的拉大,央行注資也只能發揮短暫的效果。<br />
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十 二、大規模全球衰退將發生,變成惡性循環。「虧損會導致各種金融機構必須訂定更高的獲利目標,嘗試進一步降低風險,和不得不拍賣低流動性的資產。但這會形 成更多虧損,也就需要更高獲利,」而當股價再度下跌,企業就需要更高更高的獲利…終將變成無法控制的惡性迴圈。「當信用的虧損和危機擴散到全球,美國與全 球金融市場將被捲入 25年來最嚴重的危機。」</blockquote>
資本主義是很好的,但當中人性的缺陷是,去假設所有的目標都會達到並且無限的成長。作過Sales就會知道,Quota一定只會往上長的;問題是市場本身就是有限,怎麼可能無限成長?因此販售東西的人就會想盡辦法達成不合理的目標。然後整個體系就會付出代價。Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-659055489984687882008-06-03T09:26:00.003+08:002008-06-28T20:48:17.321+08:00〈分析〉熊氣瀰漫 政府好戰 美國經濟回春?等2011年再說吧! - MEIF理<a href="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw%21Q5uL3CaFFRliq680eW.lDoBFNOw4/article?mid=3087">〈分析〉熊氣瀰漫 政府好戰 美國經濟回春?等2011年再說吧! - MEIF理</a><br />
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巨額的聯邦負債、已經引爆以及尚未引爆的金融商品、高齡化的社會。這就是現在的美國。<br />
<br />
今年底的選舉會為美國的未來畫下命運。在攀高的失業率以及不明確的未來當中,新總統會用哪種政見來贏得選民的心呢?<br />
<br />
高齡化的社會所面臨的賦稅問題,解決方案是要透過引進大量的年輕移民。但引進大量的移民又會同時受到中產階級的挑戰─H1工作簽證在過去已經因為不斷的遭受非議而被迫減少名額。<br />
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我想我能做的就是在去美國拿MBA之前去補辦一張台胞證,然後伺機而動了。Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-48625679146001880322008-05-26T16:24:00.002+08:002008-06-28T21:45:16.315+08:00Ubuntu: "Netbook Remix" Ubuntu for Ultraportables Coming in June<a href="http://gizmodo.com/393089/netbook-remix-ubuntu-for-ultraportables-coming-in-june">Ubuntu: "Netbook Remix" Ubuntu for Ultraportables Coming in June</a><br />
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Ubuntu has made a good move. Asus has been making an Debian based distro of its own; isn't Ubuntu supposed to do this job?<br />
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As I have bought a new notebook and installed Windows Vista bundled with the system, I decided that I will stay using Windows for my MBA study. With Ubuntu, we have solved almost all basic computing necessity, but omitted some higher-end ones. I still can't work with webcam that my laptop has bundled. While under Linux I never worry about the need of running a windows application (which can be done with wine), hardware drivers of all peripherals is not 100% yet. And that would make my skype useless. A pity.<br />
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Hopefully some extended relationship with hardware manufacturers can strengthen this regard.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-49435598635992666852008-05-26T15:02:00.002+08:002008-06-28T21:49:46.374+08:00Breaking: FCC Confirms that Big Winner in Spectrum Auction is Verizon. So Why Is Google Smiling?<a href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/03/20/breaking-fcc-confirms-that-big-winner-in-spectrum-auction-is-verizon/">Breaking: FCC Confirms that Big Winner in Spectrum Auction is Verizon. So Why Is Google Smiling?</a><br />
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Nicely played. As what I have mentioned before: The beauty of capitalism and free market is competition. In long term, consumers always win.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-76403684139025136662008-05-26T07:59:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:46:55.016+08:00Morton’s Weblog » Blog Archive » The LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI)<a href="http://mtlin.org/archives/660">Morton’s Weblog » Blog Archive » The LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LSTI)</a><br />
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I thought that the future of wireless is WiMAX! It appears that the classical battle between HD and Blueray is going to repeat in telecommunication arena.<br />
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LTE, however, doesn't have as much media coverage as WiMAX, at least in Taiwan, that is. Vendor like Motorola already begun to plan its future products so that they can support both standards. Taiwanese chip designers, however, seem to be betting on WiMAX.<br />
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I need to dig more information out of this.Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-14103059380534125022008-05-26T07:57:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:46:24.035+08:00SpringSource Team Blog » Spring Integration: a new addition to the Spring portfolio<a href="http://blog.springsource.com/main/2007/12/14/spring-integration-a-new-addition-to-the-spring-portfolio/">SpringSource Team Blog » Spring Integration: a new addition to the Spring portfolio</a><br />
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An application framework with built-in enterprise integration capability?<br />
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Coming from a middleware background, I have to disagree with such approach. Honestly.<br />
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I have been a Spring fan for 5 years. The elegant and relevant design of that framework fixed many of JavaEE's deficiencies, but it has gone a little too far this time.<br />
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Application Integration is a tough topic. People have used specialized middleware and interfaces to address it for realistic reasons:<br />
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<ol>
<li>Central control</li>
<ul>
<li>Can you imagine hundreds and thousands of applications doing integration of their own? That might be to outcome of over-relying Spring Integration capabilities</li>
</ul>
<li>Enhanced monitoring, troubleshooting and management capabilities</li>
<ul>
<li>One central place to address message format, transaction issues, performance tuning and monitor your processes.</li>
</ul>
<li>Business Process conformance</li>
<ul>
<li>Integration always follows the direction of Business Process. When Business Process changes, so should integration endpoints. A BPM oriented integration approach implements this requirement more efficiently.</li>
</ul>
</ol>Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-504603338216495984.post-74324037836669039942008-05-25T12:27:00.002+08:002008-06-28T20:45:55.494+08:00Mint adds investment tracking, burger buying trends | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone<a href="http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9931581-2.html?part=rss&amp;tag=feed&amp;subj=Webware">Mint adds investment tracking, burger buying trends | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone</a><br />
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Damn, someone else has implemented my idea! I have even written this in one of my MBA application essay!<br />
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However, Mint, the Web 2.0 style startup producing online version of Microsoft Money, has implemented well. I can't really use this application because I'm not located in US right now; those of you whom are interested might try this website <a href="https://wwws.mint.com/">here</a>.<br />
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Now, if only individual consumer could possess investment tools that can outsmart world's top hedge funds....Anthony Jenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13896329230256399401noreply@blogger.com0